UAE Announces Withdrawal From OPEC and OPEC+
ABU DHABI — April 29, 2026 — The United Arab Emirates has announced it will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance effective May 1, 2026, ending nearly six decades of membership in a stunning move that deals a heavy blow to the oil cartel at a time of historic energy market upheaval .
The decision, announced on Tuesday, April 28, came as a surprise to global energy markets and represents a significant shift in the regional balance of power, with the UAE breaking from its longtime ally and OPEC leader Saudi Arabia .
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UAE Cites National Interest and Market Needs
In an official statement carried by state news agency WAM, the UAE government said the withdrawal decision followed a “comprehensive assessment” of its production policies and current and future capacity, and was made based on “national interest” while aiming to meet urgent international market demands more effectively .
“This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile,” the statement said. “During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all. However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates” .
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei emphasized that the decision was not political in nature but a “sovereign state decision” guided by policy considerations. “We need to be unconstrained, to be able to make the right decisions more nimbly, flexibly and quickly to balance our policies,” Mazrouei said in an interview, according to reports .
The minister also noted that the timing of the withdrawal was “right,” asserting that the move would not significantly impact oil markets or prices because of the ongoing restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz .
Longstanding Tensions With Saudi Arabia
While the UAE’s statement emphasized national strategy, analysts say the decision is rooted in years of mounting frustration with OPEC’s production quota system and the dominance of the cartel’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia .
The UAE has long chafed under OPEC’s production caps, which the country believes limit its ability to capitalize on significant investments in expanding its production capacity .
The UAE has invested heavily to expand its crude oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, up from approximately 3.4 million barrels per day currently. But under the existing OPEC+ deal, the UAE had a baseline production quota of 3.2 million barrels per day — far below its capacity .
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Tensions between the two Gulf giants came to a head during a two-week standoff in July 2021 when the UAE blocked a Saudi-led deal on output increases, demanding changes to the baseline from which production cuts were calculated . While a compromise was eventually reached — boosting the UAE’s baseline to 3.5 million barrels per day — resentment festered .
Further straining the relationship, the UAE has differed with Saudi Arabia over the conflict in Yemen and the pace of economic diversification, with Riyadh prioritizing higher oil to fund its budget while the wealthier UAE can afford to pump more aggressively and shift revenue into a post-oil future .
Regional Security Rifts Exposed by Iran War
The outbreak of the war between Iran and the US-Israel alliance on February 28 has amplified the UAE’s grievances with the regional security architecture — and by extension, with OPEC .
The UAE has suffered extensive damage from Iranian missile and drone attacks during the conflict, with strikes hitting airports, fuel depots, and critical industrial infrastructure . Despite this, Bahrain was the only Gulf Arab state to directly participate in the US-led retaliatory campaign; most other Gulf states maintained a “strategic silence” that frustrated Abu Dhabi .
In a blistering assessment on Monday, April 27 — just one day before the OPEC withdrawal announcement — UAE presidential diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash publicly criticized the region’s response to the Iranian attacks .
“The Gulf Cooperation Council countries supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, I think their position has been the weakest historically,” Gargash said at the Gulf Influencers Forum. “I expect this weak stance from the Arab League and I am not surprised by it, but I haven’t expected it from the Cooperation Council and I am surprised by it” .
Gargash also criticized the bloc for not explicitly criticizing Iranian aggression, underscoring a widening rift between Abu Dhabi and its traditional allies .
Production Already Bypassing Strait of Hormuz
The UAE’s withdrawal was made possible, in part, by its success in circumventing Iran’s virtual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil normally transits .
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has informed some long-term customers that they can load crude from the port of Fujairah, located on the Gulf of Oman outside the strait, via ship-to-ship transfers . This arrangement, along with a strategic pipeline linking Abu Dhabi’s main fields to Fujairah, has allowed the UAE to continue exporting crude even as the strait remains largely closed to other Gulf producers .
Iran has not commented on the arrangement. Some shipping data also indicates that UAE tankers appear to be slowly trickling through the strait, possibly under pre-arranged terms with Tehran .
Impact on Global Oil Markets
The withdrawal stunned energy markets. On Tuesday, oil prices briefly fell more than 2 percent before partially recovering. By the market close, West Texas Intermediate crude stood at 99.62abarrel,whileBrentcrudesettledat104.48 .
Analysts say the short-term price impact is muted only because the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed, limiting the UAE’s ability to immediately flood the market with extra crude .
But once the strait reopens, the UAE is likely to ramp up production, adding more oil into a market that the International Energy Agency expects will see declining demand in 2026. That could place sustained downward pressure on global oil prices .
“The market is losing 13% of OPEC’s production capacity today,” said Jamie Ingram, managing editor of the Middle East Economic Survey .
Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, pointed out the long-term implications: “If the UAE intends to aggressively put more oil onto the market once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, that will put downward pressure on prices. For consumers, that is ultimately a good thing” .
The UAE’s exit is the most significant of any OPEC member since Angola left in 2024, and only the second departure from the Gulf region since 2019, when Qatar withdrew amid a separate diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia .
The move also represents a major strategic victory for the United States, whose presidents have long complained that OPEC’s coordination inflates global fuel prices. President Donald Trump has repeatedly accused the cartel of “ripping off the rest of the world” .
What Comes Next
The UAE’s formal withdrawal takes effect at the beginning of May. The government stated that it would continue selling crude under “responsible market conditions” but would no longer feel bound to any production ceiling set in Vienna .
Analysts expect the OPEC framework to continue operating, with Saudi Arabia likely absorbing extra production requests made by other members. But the bloc’s cohesion has now been broken — and other members may consider similar exits .
A more fragmented oil market would give individual producers like the UAE and possibly others more freedom to flood the market once the current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz subsides, which would be a net negative for prices over the medium term .
“OPEC has lost a core member and the group responsible for managing a significant share of world supply leading the world into a new era in which, unconstrained, producers will likely choose market share over price stability,” one analyst told Reuters, in comments summarized by Gulf Times .
The UAE has been a member of OPEC via the emirate of Abu Dhabi since 1967 — four years before the federation was formally established as an independent country . Its departure is set to reshape the geopolitics of global oil supply for years to come.
SOURCES / INPUTS
- BERNAMA: UAE LEAVES OPEC AND OPEC+ IN HUGE BLOW TO GLOBAL OIL PRODUCERS’ GROUP
- Gulf Times: UAE pulls out of Opec citing ‘national interests’
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