Iraq Warns It Could Leave OPEC if Production Quota Is Not Raised
BAGHDAD — June 25, 2026 — Iraq, the second-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is pressuring the oil cartel to significantly increase its production quota, warning that Baghdad will consider all options, including leaving the group, if its demands are not met. The move comes as the country grapples with a severe financial crisis following months of disrupted exports.
Iraq’s Oil Ministry on Thursday, June 25, confirmed that it has formally urged OPEC to raise its output ceiling, citing the severe damage inflicted on its energy sector by decades of conflict and the recent regional war in West Asia . The ministry emphasized that production baselines must be “aligned with the sustainable production capacities of member countries” and must respect “Iraq’s unique security and economic circumstances” . Oil exports account for approximately 90% of Iraq’s budget revenues .
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The Quota Dispute and Exit Threat
The public appeal follows reports that Iraq has weighed the possibility of withdrawing from the organization . A senior Iraqi oil ministry official told Reuters that “Saudi Arabia and other OPEC allies should treat this matter with the utmost seriousness” and that “failing that, Iraq will be compelled to consider all available options” .
While the ministry has denied that a withdrawal is currently under active consideration, it has made clear that Baghdad’s patience is limited . Oil Ministry spokesperson Salim al-Rikabi stated that Iraq “has no intention of withdrawing from the organisation and remains committed to its mechanisms,” but added that the cartel “has to raise Iraq’s production quota. Otherwise, a decision will have to be made about whether to stay or leave the organisation” .
The threat represents a significant challenge to OPEC’s cohesion, especially coming less than two months after the United Arab Emirates exited the group in May . Iraq is a founding member of OPEC, established in Baghdad in 1960, and its departure would be a symbolic and practical blow to the bloc .
Impact of War and Financial Strain
Iraq’s push for a higher quota is driven by the economic devastation of the recent war, which effectively blocked its primary export route through the Strait of Hormuz . Before the conflict began on February 28, Iraq produced around four million barrels per day (bpd) and exported an average of 3.5 million bpd . The disruptions caused production to plummet to just 1.55 million bpd in May, according to industry estimates .
A government spokesperson stated that Iraq is working to restore its full export capacity and aims to raise production to seven million bpd in the coming years . The cabinet has also approved plans to accelerate crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline, an alternative route that would help reduce its reliance on Hormuz .
OPEC+ Capacity Review Underway
The demand comes as OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) are conducting a review of members’ technical production capacities, with the findings expected to shape output baselines for 2027 . Analysts suggest that Iraq’s public pressure campaign may be an attempt to influence this review process .
Despite the public dispute, OPEC has “responded by launching a process to reassess” member states’ capacities . The ministry has noted there is a “high level of understanding” among members regarding Iraq’s situation, citing its history of wars, sanctions, and recent attacks .
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SOURCES / INPUTS
- The Hindu: Iraq urges OPEC to raise its quota
- Ahram Online: Baghdad urges OPEC to raise Iraq’s production quota
- Arab Times: Iraq May Consider Leaving OPEC Over Production Quota Dispute
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