‘The Clock Is Ticking’: UN FAO Warns Persian Gulf Crisis Threatens Global Food Security
UNITED NATIONS, New York — The escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf has triggered one of the most rapid and severe disruptions to global commodity flows in recent memory, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned Thursday, sounding an urgent alarm over the cascading impacts on farmers, migrant workers, and food-insecure populations across the globe.
Speaking to journalists at UN Headquarters in New York, FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero delivered a stark assessment: with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime corridor—plunging by more than 90 percent since the war erupted, the world is facing a “double shock” of soaring fertilizer and fuel prices that threatens to upend agricultural production just as planting seasons unfold across vulnerable regions.
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“Temporality matters a lot right now, and the clock is ticking very hard,” Torero said via videoconference from Rome. “We need to find a solution as soon as possible.”
A Chokepoint Under Siege: The Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway separating the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman, is not merely a strategic military chokepoint—it is the circulatory system of global agriculture. Under normal conditions, approximately 35 percent of global crude oil flows—some 20 million barrels per day—transit through the strait, alongside 30 percent of global fertilizer trade and a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas.
This daily flow of essential commodities has been severed. Since the outbreak of hostilities, tanker traffic has collapsed by more than 90 percent, sending shockwaves through supply chains that underpin food production on every continent. The consequences, Torero warned, will not be contained to the Gulf region.
“We are witnessing a disruption of unprecedented speed and severity,” he said. “The inputs that farmers depend on—fertilizer to nourish crops, fuel to power irrigation and harvesting—are becoming scarcer and more expensive by the day.”
The ‘Double Shock’: Farmers Caught in the Crossfire
For farmers worldwide, the crisis presents a dual-front assault. First, fertilizer prices are spiking as supply routes through the Gulf are severed. Second, rising fuel costs are driving up the price of agricultural operations, from tilling fields to transporting harvests to market. Together, these pressures constitute what Torero described as “a double shock” that could not have come at a worse time.
“Farmers are facing increased costs for both inputs and energy at the exact moment when planting decisions are being made,” he explained. “If a solution is found soon, markets could stabilize within roughly three months. But if disruptions continue, we enter a different scenario entirely.”
That medium-term scenario, Torero warned, could include reduced crop yields as farmers are forced to cut back on fertilizer use or switch to less productive substitutes. Some may opt to plant lower-yield crops that require fewer inputs, potentially shrinking the global food supply just as population growth and climate pressures are already straining systems.
The crisis could also ignite competition from the biofuel sector. If oil prices rise above $100 per barrel—a likely outcome if the Gulf disruption persists—biofuels become more economically attractive. While this could provide a windfall for farmers growing biofuel feedstocks, Torero cautioned that “it will be bad for consumers because prices will increase.”
Vulnerable Nations: Where the Clock Ticks Fastest
The FAO’s concern is not uniform across the globe. Torero identified several categories of countries facing acute vulnerability, with the “ticking clock” most urgent for nations where harvests are underway or planting windows are closing.
Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, where rice harvests are happening now, are top priorities. Both countries rely heavily on imported fertilizers and fuel, and any disruption to these inputs could compromise the current harvest—with cascading effects on domestic food supplies and prices.
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African nations that depend on imported fertilizers are also in the crosshairs. Many countries across sub-Saharan Africa have little to no domestic fertilizer production and rely almost entirely on global markets. With prices rising and supply chains disrupted, farmers may be forced to apply less fertilizer—or none at all—leading to reduced yields at a time when food insecurity is already at historic highs.
Even “big exporters” like Argentina, Brazil, and the United States will not escape unscathed, Torero noted. These agricultural powerhouses are heavily reliant on imported fertilizers, and any sustained disruption to global fertilizer markets will raise production costs and potentially reduce export volumes, tightening global supplies and pushing prices upward.
The Gulf Region: Skyrocketing Prices and Stranded Workers
Within the Persian Gulf region itself, the crisis is already manifesting in dramatic price hikes and humanitarian concerns. Torero reported that food prices are “skyrocketing” in Iran, which produces roughly 70 percent of its own food supply but relies on imports for the remaining 30 percent. With shipping lanes effectively closed, those imports are not arriving.
Meanwhile, “huge importers of food” such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates face existential challenges. These nations produce little of their own food and depend almost entirely on maritime imports. With no vessels entering the region, they are scrambling to secure alternative supply routes and emergency stockpiles.
Beyond the immediate food price shocks, the conflict threatens the livelihoods of millions of migrant workers from South Asia and East Africa employed across Gulf countries. These workers send remittances home to support families in countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Kenya. If the conflict persists, job losses or payment disruptions could cascade into economic crises across South Asia and East Africa, further undermining food security in already vulnerable regions.
A Three-Tiered Path Forward
Torero outlined a three-pronged strategy to mitigate the unfolding crisis, emphasizing that the window for action is narrowing with each passing day.
Short Term: Alternative Routes and Emergency Support
“We need to find alternative maritime routes in the short term,” Torero said, acknowledging that rerouting shipping away from the Strait of Hormuz is costly and time-consuming but essential. He also called for “emergency balance of payment support to import-dependent nations before planting windows close.” For countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, financial assistance to secure fertilizer and fuel shipments in the coming weeks could mean the difference between a successful harvest and a food emergency.
Medium Term: Diversification and Regional Cooperation
If the disruption continues beyond three months, the focus must shift to building resilience. Torero urged countries to “diversify fertilizer import sources” to reduce dependence on any single supply chain. Strengthening regional reserve sharing mechanisms—allowing neighboring countries to pool resources and coordinate responses—could also buffer against future shocks. Crucially, he warned against the kind of export restrictions that exacerbated the 2007–2008 food crisis. “We must avoid export restrictions,” he said. “They only deepen the crisis.”
Long Term: Treating Food Systems as Strategic Infrastructure
Torero’s most sweeping recommendation addresses the underlying vulnerability that makes crises like this so devastating. “We need to treat food systems with the same strategic importance as energy and transport sectors,” he said, “investing accordingly to minimize those shocks.”
This means viewing food security not as a humanitarian concern to be addressed after a crisis erupts, but as a critical infrastructure priority—deserving of sustained investment, strategic reserves, and diversified supply chains. The current crisis, Torero suggested, is a wake-up call.
The Stakes: A Global Food System at a Crossroads
As the Persian Gulf conflict grinds on, the FAO’s warning echoes through capitals and farmlands alike. The Strait of Hormuz chokepoint has long been recognized as a vulnerability in global energy markets, but its centrality to food production has received far less attention. That oversight is now being exposed with brutal clarity.
For farmers in Bangladesh, the decision of how much fertilizer to apply this season will be shaped by events thousands of miles away. For consumers in Qatar, the price of bread will be determined by shipping routes and diplomatic negotiations. For a migrant worker in Dubai, the ability to send money home to a family in rural Pakistan may hinge on whether vessels resume transiting the Gulf.
“Temporality matters a lot right now,” Torero said. “The clock is ticking very hard.”
As the world watches the Persian Gulf, the FAO is urging action before the ticking clock becomes a time bomb for global food security. The solutions exist—alternative routes, financial support, diversification, investment—but they require the kind of swift, coordinated international response that has too often eluded a fragmented world.
“We need to find a solution as soon as possible,” Torero concluded. “The longer we wait, the harder it becomes—and the more people will pay the price.”
SOURCES / INPUTS
UN News: Persian Gulf crisis food security FAO
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167205
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