‘They Cannot Afford Another Fall’: Myanmar’s Fragile Recovery from Deadly Earthquake Undermined by Global Crises
BANGKOK / YANGON — One year after a devastating earthquake tore through central Myanmar, survivors who have barely begun to rebuild their lives are facing a new wave of instability driven not by aftershocks, but by global events thousands of miles away. The UN World Food Programme (WFP) warned Friday that rising fuel, food, and fertilizer prices—sparked by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East—are threatening to push vulnerable families back into hunger just as they were beginning to recover.
In the earthquake-ravaged regions of Sagaing and Mandalay, one in six households continue to face moderate to severe food insecurity a full year after the disaster, according to the WFP’s latest monitoring data. Half of all families in the affected areas remain only marginally food secure—meaning that even a small shock, such as a further rise in fuel prices or a disruption to supply chains, could tip them into crisis.
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“People who survived the earthquake have barely begun to stand again, and now another blow is knocking them back down,” said Michael Dunford, WFP Country Director for Myanmar, in a statement released Friday. “The people of Myanmar have endured shock after shock—conflict, climate disasters, the devastating earthquake, and now a global fuel crisis. We must stand with them now. One year after the earthquake, they cannot afford another fall.”
March 2025: The Earthquake That Shook a Nation
On March 28, 2025, a powerful magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck central Myanmar, with its epicenter near the city of Sagaing, one of the country’s most populous regions. The quake—the strongest to hit Myanmar in more than a century—killed more than 3,000 people, injured thousands more, and reduced entire neighborhoods to rubble. Hospitals, roads, and bridges were destroyed or severely damaged, complicating rescue efforts in a country already mired in a brutal civil war.
The disaster struck at a moment of profound vulnerability. Myanmar has been locked in a protracted conflict since the military coup of February 2021, with armed resistance groups battling the junta across large swaths of the country. The earthquake added a humanitarian catastrophe to an already dire situation, displacing hundreds of thousands and overwhelming a health system that was already on its knees.
In the immediate aftermath, the WFP and other UN agencies mounted a massive relief operation, reaching half a million earthquake survivors with emergency food aid, clean water, and shelter materials. Over the past year, the organization has been working to transition from emergency relief to long-term recovery, helping communities rebuild infrastructure and restore livelihoods.
But that transition is now under threat.
The New Shock: Middle East Conflict Ripples to Southeast Asia
The crisis unfolding in the Persian Gulf—where tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged by more than 90 percent amid escalating conflict—is being felt far beyond the Middle East. For Myanmar, a country already grappling with currency collapse, hyperinflation, and disrupted supply chains, the global shock could not have come at a worse time.
Fuel shortages are spreading across Myanmar as transportation routes are disrupted and import costs skyrocket. The WFP reports that fuel prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, driving up the cost of moving food, agricultural goods, and humanitarian supplies. For families already spending a staggering proportion of their income on basic necessities, even a modest increase in fuel prices can push them over the edge.
“A new wave of global instability is hitting Myanmar at the worst possible moment,” Dunford said. The rising fuel costs are not only affecting consumers—they are also striking farmers as they prepare for the upcoming monsoon planting season.
Farmers Under Pressure: A Threat to the Next Harvest
Myanmar’s agricultural sector, which employs more than half the country’s workforce, is facing a “double shock” of its own. Fertilizer prices are climbing as global supply chains are disrupted, and with demand expected to rise over the next three months as farmers prepare their fields for monsoon crops, the outlook is grim.
The WFP warns that production expenses could double last year’s levels if fuel shortages and rising input costs persist. For smallholder farmers—already struggling with displacement, insecurity, and the lingering effects of the earthquake—the result could be reduced planting, lower yields, and a further contraction of the country’s food supply.
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This matters not only for farmers themselves but for the entire country. Myanmar has long been a major rice producer, but conflict and climate shocks have already reduced output in recent years. If this year’s monsoon harvest is compromised, the consequences for food availability and prices could be severe—particularly in conflict-affected areas where markets are already fragile.
A Country in Crisis: 12.4 Million Facing Acute Hunger
The earthquake and its aftermath unfolded against a backdrop of already catastrophic food insecurity. According to WFP data, 12.4 million people in Myanmar—nearly one quarter of the population—are currently facing acute hunger. This figure includes communities displaced by conflict, families trapped in areas cut off by fighting, and those still struggling to recover from the earthquake.
The compounding shocks of conflict, climate disasters, the earthquake, and now the global fuel crisis are expected to hit hardest in areas already on the edge: Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Rakhine, Sagaing, and Shan. These are regions where armed conflict has been most intense, where displacement has been most widespread, and where humanitarian access has been most restricted.
“In the affected regions of Sagaing and Mandalay, one in six households continue to face moderate to severe food insecurity,” the WFP report states. “Half of all families remain only marginally food secure, making them exceptionally vulnerable to even the smallest shock.”
WFP’s Response: From Emergency Relief to Resilience
Over the past year, the WFP has worked to shift its operations in earthquake-affected areas from emergency relief to longer-term recovery. The agency has been supporting community infrastructure projects—repairing roads, rebuilding irrigation systems, and restoring markets—that help families regain their livelihoods and reduce dependence on aid.
“We have transitioned from emergency relief to restoring community infrastructure that provides long-term stability,” the WFP said.
But those recovery efforts are now at risk. The agency is facing a funding gap of $150 million to assist 1.5 million people across Myanmar this year with life-saving assistance and resilience support. Without sufficient funding, the WFP says it will be forced to prioritize the most urgent life-saving needs—potentially scaling back the very recovery programs that help earthquake survivors rebuild their lives and break the cycle of dependence on aid.
The Human Toll: Stories from the Ground
Behind the statistics are individual stories of loss, resilience, and precarious hope. In Sagaing, where the earthquake flattened homes and destroyed livelihoods, families spent the past year slowly piecing their lives back together. Farmers who lost their livestock and equipment have been rebuilding their herds and replanting their fields. Mothers who delivered their babies in the aftermath of the quake have watched their children take their first steps.
But with fuel prices rising and fertilizer becoming unaffordable, many of these families are now confronting an impossible choice: plant less, or not at all. For those still living in temporary shelters, the prospect of a second year of lost harvests is devastating.
“One year after the earthquake, they cannot afford another fall,” Dunford said. The warning is not just about food—it is about the accumulated weight of repeated shocks, each one eroding the fragile gains made in the months between disasters.
A Call to the International Community
The WFP’s report is both a status update and a plea. One year after the earthquake, the world’s attention has largely moved on. But for the people of Sagaing and Mandalay, for the displaced families in Rakhine and Kachin, for the farmers watching fertilizer prices climb, the crisis is not over—it is deepening.
“We must stand with them now,” Dunford said.
The $150 million funding request is not a large sum by global standards, but it is the difference between life and death for millions. It is the difference between a family planting their fields this monsoon or watching them lie fallow. It is the difference between a community rebuilding its school or going without. It is the difference between a fragile recovery and a catastrophic fall.
As global crises compete for attention and resources, the WFP is urging the international community not to look away. Myanmar’s earthquake survivors have endured more than their share of hardship. A year after the ground shook, they are still standing—but they are running out of time.
Looking Ahead: The Monsoon Window
The next three months will be critical. As the monsoon rains approach, farmers must make planting decisions now. If they cannot afford fertilizer or fuel for irrigation, the window for this year’s harvest will close—with consequences that will ripple through the country for the rest of the year.
For the WFP, the challenge is to sustain both emergency food assistance for the most vulnerable and the recovery programs that help communities build a path out of dependency. Without new funding, both will be at risk.
“The people of Myanmar have endured shock after shock,” Dunford said. “One year after the earthquake, they cannot afford another fall.”
The question now is whether the world will hear that warning—and act before it is too late.
SOURCES / INPUTS
https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167209
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