UN Commission Warns South Sudan at Risk of ‘Return to Full-Scale War’ as Peace Deal Unravels

GENEVA — A United Nations investigative body has issued a stark warning that South Sudan is on the brink of a “return to full-scale war,” with political and military leaders systematically dismantling a fragile 2018 peace agreement and exposing civilians to mass atrocity crimes .

The Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan presented its latest report to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on February 27, 2026, painting a grim picture of escalating violence, ethnic targeting, and institutional collapse in the world’s youngest nation . The findings come a decade after the Council first established the Commission in March 2016 .

“We are at a dangerous point, when rising violence is combined with deepening uncertainty over South Sudan’s political trajectory, as the peace agreement comes under severe strain,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk told the Council .

Systematic Dismantling of Peace Agreement

The Commission’s report documents what it describes as the systematic dismantling throughout 2025 of the Revitalised Peace Agreement that ended a five-year civil war in 2018 which claimed an estimated 400,000 lives . Investigators attributed the rising instability to the actions of political and military elites who have eroded power-sharing guarantees .

“Last March, the President declared South Sudan would not return to war. To the contrary, we have seen an alarming regression,” said Yasmin Sooka, the Chairperson of the Commission . “Government forces have since carried out widespread and systematic attacks against civilians, including unlawful killings, indiscriminate, disproportionate aerial bombardment of civilian homes and medical facilities in violation of the principles of distinction, proportionality and precaution under international humanitarian law” .

The Commission also documented incidents of conflict-related sexual violence and the abduction and forcible recruitment of boys, conduct prohibited under the Convention on the Rights of the Child . “Taken together, these acts may constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity under international law,” Sooka warned .

Arrest of Opposition Leaders Triggers Turmoil

A key flashpoint identified in the report is the arrest and prosecution of First Vice President Riek Machar, which has severely undermined the core power-sharing guarantees of the 2018 peace deal . In March 2025, the ruling SPLM-IG party detained opposition members across the country, including eight opposition leaders, among them Machar, an ethnic Nuer . They were charged in September 2025 with serious crimes including murder and treason following clashes in the northeastern town of Nasir .

The detentions have triggered political turmoil and armed conflict on a magnitude not seen in a decade . The Commission raised serious concerns of arbitrary detention in violation of international law, denial of fair trial guarantees, and unlawful executive interference with judicial independence .

“In our close examination of the detention and prosecution of opposition leaders, we identified serious and extensive violations of due process,” said Commissioner Carlos Castresana Fernandez . “A fundamental issue is their detention without charge or lawyers for over five months. Another is the prejudicial statements by senior officials, and unexplained dismissals of chief justices and indeed justice ministers in the process – which indicates executive interference and may in part explain why judges never addressed the unlawful detentions” .

Castresana called for their immediate release, stating that “the unlawful deprivation of liberty warrants this, and it should be done promptly, in accordance with applicable law” .

Ethnic Targeting and Government-Led Attacks

The Commission found that armed forces under ruling party command are now most responsible for attacks against civilians, including patterns of targeting linked to ethnicity and perceived political affiliation . As attacks on Nuer civilians by government forces continue escalating, particularly in Jonglei state, investigators noted that “the ethnic dimensions to renewed violence are inseparable from the politicized detentions and prosecutions of opposition leaders, which are also ethnically charged” .

The report identifies airstrikes on levels unprecedented since pre-independence wars, conducted by the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces with documented support by Ugandan forces . Most bombings hit areas the ruling party declared “hostile,” with civilian homes, hospitals, and opposition sites targeted . Many of the improvised bombs inflicted severe burns on mostly civilian victims, often fatal .

“Reflecting profound abdication of core duties and obligations, the systematic bombings and forced recruitments targeting civilians have been conducted by the very armed forces which are responsible for citizens’ protection,” said Commissioner Barney Afako . “These are gross violations of the State’s international human rights law obligations and implicate leaders in serious crimes” .

The Commission documented forced recruitment in Juba led by SSPDF, in which boys and young men were abducted and transported north to fight . Evidence gathered indicates these violations are authorized, condoned, or tolerated by senior political and military officials, engaging individual criminal responsibility including under the doctrine of command responsibility .

Surge in Violence and Civilian Casualties

UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk provided harrowing details of the deteriorating security situation. His office documented that 189 civilians were killed in January alone, amid a 45 percent surge in human rights violations and abuses compared to December 2025 .

Türk expressed horror at an attack on February 21 by government forces and allied militia on a village in Ayod County in Jonglei state . “Witnesses told my colleagues that troops ordered residents to gather, and then opened fire on the crowd, killing 21 unarmed civilians including women and children,” he told the Council . South Sudanese officials have disputed this account, with government spokesman Ateny Wek stating that “unless those civilians were caught in a crossfire, there’s not any SSPDF that has the intention to kill any civilian” .

Türk warned that “military discipline appears to have collapsed in both Government and opposition forces in Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria, where troops have demonstrated a near-total disregard for civilian protection” . His team recorded a 40 percent increase compared to 2024 in the number of people killed and injured in the conflict last year, to more than 5,100 .

The rights chief also voiced concern at hate speech and incitement to violence targeting entire communities and ethnic groups. “In one audio recording authenticated by the UN mission, a senior military official urged his forces to spare no lives, and to destroy civilian homes, livestock, and property,” he said . “Acts of hate speech and incitement to violence may amount to international crimes. Those responsible for such crimes may be prosecuted under international law” .

Humanitarian Catastrophe Deepens

The humanitarian impact of the crisis is staggering. According to UN figures, at least 280,000 people have been displaced since December, with displacement surging by nearly 40 percent . The UN children’s agency UNICEF has warned that over 450,000 children are facing acute malnutrition .

Nearly 10 million people — more than half the population — are now in need of life-saving aid . However, humanitarian efforts are being crippled by attacks and the deliberate blocking of assistance . Türk warned that South Sudan has become “extremely dangerous for humanitarian workers,” with 350 attacks on staff and facilities last year — more than one third more than in 2024 .

Sexual violence remains a “defining and persistent feature” of the ongoing conflict . The Commission found that rape has been utilized as a “strategic instrument of conflict” to fracture social cohesion and terrorize populations . Investigators also documented a disturbing increase to 550 in the number of civilians abducted by opposition forces and their allies in 2025 .

International Response and Calls for Action

The European Union, in a statement delivered at the Human Rights Council session, expressed deep concern over the deteriorating situation and urgently called on all parties to immediately halt all violence . The EU reiterated its call for the immediate release of all political detainees, including Machar, and urged all parties to work together to ensure full implementation of the peace agreement .

In a joint statement posted on social media late on February 26, the United States, the European Union, Britain, and other Western nations said they were “appalled by credible reports of a deliberate massacre of civilians” in the Jonglei village of Pankor .

The Commission’s report calls for immediate cessation of hostilities, restoration and full implementation of the Revitalised Agreement, and compliance with South Sudan’s obligations under international law . It urges international and regional stakeholders to apply diplomatic pressure and sanctions while strictly enforcing the UN arms embargo .

The Commission also recommends that African Union and UN member states demand compliance with the peace deal, operationalize the Hybrid Court for South Sudan, fund humanitarian efforts, and condition political support on human rights compliance .

Sooka emphasized that South Sudan’s neighboring countries must urgently step up their engagement and press the ruling party to restore the agreement, starting with ending military offensives, recommitting to the cessation of hostilities, and releasing opposition leaders from unlawful detention .

“Without urgent course correction, South Sudan risks state failure, further undermining regional security, and trampling the rights and dignity of South Sudanese,” she warned .

Elections in Doubt

The ruling party has stated it plans to conduct the first national election in December 2026. However, the Commission expressed deep skepticism about the feasibility of credible polls under current conditions .

“Credible electoral processes are unrealistic in a context where civic space is repressed, conflict rages, more than three million people are internally displaced, and key opposition leaders are arbitrarily detained during a politicized trial,” Sooka said .

The report also reiterates findings detailing grand corruption diverting revenues to elites, rendering government institutions unable to address basic needs and fulfill human rights . Since its publication in September 2025, corruption mechanisms have further entrenched .

As the Human Rights Council session continues, the international community faces mounting pressure to act decisively to prevent South Sudan’s slide back into the full-scale civil war that devastated the country for five years and left hundreds of thousands dead .

With inputs from
Times of Oman: South Sudan risks full-scale war UN
Anadolu: South Sudan dangerous point UN
EEAS: EU statement HRC61 South Sudan
US News: South Sudan killings surge UN

For broader context, see our in-depth analysis on Human Rights Systems Explained: Law, Enforcement & Global Justice.

Also in this section: UN Chief Warns ‘Rule of Force’ Is Dismantling Global Order as Human Rights Come Under Assault and Human Rights Systems Explained: Law, Enforcement & Global Justice.