Crisis Group identifies seven peace and security priorities for Africa in 2026
Continent faces widening wars, weakened institutions, and shifting global alliances, report warns
NAIROBI, Kenya — Africa faces mounting conflict risks in 2026 amid spreading wars, weakened regional institutions, and a rapidly shifting global order, according to a new briefing from the International Crisis Group that urges urgent diplomacy to prevent further deterioration .
The report, “Seven Peace and Security Priorities for Africa in 2026,” released February 9 ahead of the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, warns that large parts of the continent remain engulfed in violence, with wars in Sudan, the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Sahel killing tens of thousands and displacing millions in 2025 .
The coming year “could see yet more trouble, including interstate conflict,” the International Crisis Group said, as long-running crises spill across borders and new confrontations emerge amid economic pressures, population displacement, and political instability .
African Union at its weakest moment
The report highlights what it calls a “deep malaise” within the African Union, whose peace and security structures once anchored continent-wide responses to crises. Despite its broad membership and established norms against coups and border changes, the AU “is no longer able to intervene substantively” in many of today’s conflicts, the briefing states .
“At a time when the AU is needed the most, it is arguably at its weakest since it was inaugurated at the start of the century,” the report says .
The organisation faces chronic underfunding, with international partners still financing 64 per cent of the AU’s total budget of around $700 million—despite a 2015 decision that African states would work toward fully funding the organisation by 2020, a deadline later extended to 2025 .
Only 17 of the 55 member states charge a recommended 0.2 per cent levy on certain goods to boost contributions, the report notes .
Kenya’s President William Ruto, appointed by his peers in early 2024 to champion reforms, has urged member states to collectively contribute $1 billion to peace and security initiatives—a proposal he presented at the February summit .
Seven critical flashpoints
The International Crisis Group identifies seven conflict arenas demanding urgent attention in 2026 :
Sudan: Toward the end of 2025, a glimmer of hope for stopping the war briefly appeared when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged U.S. President Donald Trump to get directly involved in peace efforts. Trump publicly signalled he would take on the file, and U.S. diplomats were already nudging Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates to move forward with a peace roadmap. But while Quad members agreed to that plan in September, it failed to gain acceptance by the warring parties—the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces .
Burundi and Rwanda: The report warns of a “high risk” of interstate conflict between the two neighbours, even as Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye—whose troops are currently fighting against M23 rebels in eastern DRC—assumed the AU chairmanship in February . This irony, observers note, underscores the institution’s limited ability to mediate crises when tensions simmer among its own members .
The Sahel: The protracted insurgency continues to exact a heavy toll, with militant groups shifting tactics toward economic sabotage and disruption of vital supply chains rather than seeking direct control of capital cities . In Mali and Burkina Faso, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin is focusing on strangling roads and infrastructure connecting urban centres to neighbouring countries, targeting tanker convoys, border crossings, and strategic industrial sites .
Ethiopia and Eritrea: Rising federal-TPLF tensions could descend into conflict in Tigray, with the standoff turning violent in late January when the TPLF pulled back its forces following a federal drone strike . The incident underscored the danger of escalation, with potential to pull in Eritrea on the TPLF side and devastate a region scarred by war .
Somalia: The AU mission in Somalia faces a “funding cliff” even as al-Shabaab remains a potent threat . Meanwhile, Israel became the first UN member state to recognise Somaliland on December 26, 2025—a move the report describes as “hard-nosed self-interest” securing a non-Arab partner at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes .
Cameroon: The report identifies escalating tensions requiring attention, with potential for France—despite widespread African frustration with former colonial powers—to help stave off escalatory violence given its ties with key decision-makers .
South Sudan: The AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf was rebuffed by South Sudan’s government when he sought to repair splintering relations between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, highlighting the institution’s limited influence .
Weakening multilateral system
The report situates Africa’s crises within a global landscape marked by weakening multilateral norms. It says the “unravelling of the UN-centred multilateral system” has left African states more exposed, as major powers increasingly disregard international rules meant to prevent aggression and protect civilians .
With the global order “turned on its head,” African governments face fewer diplomatic tools and greater uncertainty .
The International Crisis Group argues that conflict mediation should adopt a pragmatic, context-dependent approach. In some cases, coalitions of African states may be best positioned to lead negotiations, while in others, external actors—including the United States and Gulf states—should take on a more active role .
The briefing notes that Gulf powers increasingly play “dual roles” as both supporters of belligerents and potential mediators, influencing conflict dynamics across the continent . With its influence in both Kigali and Kinshasa, Qatar is well positioned to work with key African states to dial down tensions in the Great Lakes, the report notes .
U.S. role under Trump administration
The report identifies the U.S. administration of President Donald Trump as a key player in meeting peace and security challenges from Sudan to the Great Lakes, despite being “at times openly hostile toward the international peace and security architecture” .
The briefing notes a sharply transactional approach from Washington. Most African nations now face restrictive travel bans or visa conditions, while Kenya and Rwanda remain on an “A-List” exempted from these measures—signalling that Washington views Nairobi and Kigali as its primary “Authorised Regional Managers” .
Simultaneously, as the U.S. cuts peacekeeping funds, it has ramped up its own kinetic presence. In the past year, it conducted more air strikes against al-Shabaab than the previous three administrations combined—a policy of “security-as-a-service” where the U.S. provides firepower and keeps borders open for its closest partners while treating the rest of the region as a containment zone .
In late January, the U.S. broke ground on a $70 million expansion of the naval base at Kenya’s Manda Bay, marking a significant shift away from the “Djibouti model” toward a cleaner strategic platform for projecting power into the Western Indian Ocean .
Human toll and urgent needs
Wars in the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes, and the Sahel have displaced millions, killed thousands, and inflicted incalculable costs upon local economies, the report emphasises .
“Absent urgent steps to de-escalate, civilians will continue to pay a heavy price,” the briefing states .
The International Crisis Group calls for coordinated action, recognising that even states in internal turmoil may prefer to have stable neighbours, and that newly assertive external actors may be persuaded to stop sponsoring proxy warfare under pressure from important partners like the U.S. .
Reform efforts and long-term investment
Over the long term, pragmatism counsels for investment in the AU, the report argues. As a veteran diplomat told Crisis Group, if the organisation did not exist, it would need to be invented .
“Still, it needs to be far nimbler, and far better supported by member states willing to provide both actual and political capital in the service of continental peace and security, if it is to discharge its role effectively,” the briefing states .
A step in the right direction would be to engage seriously with the reform proposals that President Ruto presented in Addis Ababa .
The International Crisis Group’s February 2026 report presents a continent under pressure from multiple directions. With wars raging in Sudan, the eastern DRC, and the Sahel, and the risk of interstate conflict growing between Burundi and Rwanda, the human toll continues to mount.
The African Union—traditionally expected to anchor peace efforts—finds itself at its weakest moment since inception, hamstrung by chronic underfunding, institutional rivalries, and limited influence. Meanwhile, external actors including Gulf states and the United States play increasingly decisive roles, sometimes as mediators, sometimes as backers of warring parties.
Without urgent action to de-escalate conflicts, protect civilians, and reinvigorate diplomacy, the report warns, millions more could be driven from their homes and regional instability could deepen across the continent.
With inputs from
- The EastAfrican: Ruto’s African Union billion-dollar gamble runs into regional tensions
- allAfrica.com: Africa – Seven Peace and Security Priorities for Africa in 2026
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