UNESCO report reveals 272 million children out of school worldwide as education targets slip
2025 SDG 4 Scorecard shows global education crisis deepening, with conflict zones and funding gaps derailing progress toward 2030 goals
KASHMIR — March 12, 2026 — More than 272 million children and youth are out of school worldwide—an increase of 21 million from previous estimates—according to the 2025 SDG 4 Scorecard published by UNESCO, which warns that most countries are significantly off track to meet their national education targets as the 2030 deadline approaches .
The third annual assessment, jointly produced by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) and the Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report, tracks progress toward national benchmarks that 80 per cent of countries have set for eight key indicators measuring their contribution to Sustainable Development Goal 4—ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education for all .
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The report, released in June 2025 with a focus on out-of-school rates, estimates that 11 per cent of primary school-age children (78 million), 15 per cent of lower secondary-age adolescents (64 million), and 31 per cent of upper secondary-age youth (130 million) remain outside education systems globally .
Rising out-of-school numbers
The 21 million increase in out-of-school children compared to October 2024 estimates stems from two primary factors, according to the report. Updated enrolment and attendance data—including the continued ban on secondary education for Afghan girls since 2021—accounts for approximately eight million of the rise .
More significantly, revised population projections from the United Nations Population Division have added 13 million to the estimate, driven by a larger-than-expected school-age population among children aged 6 to 17 projected for 2025. The total school-age population increased by approximately 49 million, or 3.1 per cent, based on the 2024 UN World Population Prospects .
Manos Antoninis, Director of UNESCO’s Global Education Monitoring Report, emphasised the scale of the challenge. “Through their national SDG 4 benchmarks, countries have collectively committed to inject new energy into the global agenda and make it relevant to their needs. We now need continued investment in national data systems, institutional capacity, and political leadership to turn these commitments into tangible results,” Antoninis said .
Countries have committed to reducing out-of-school rates to 2 per cent at the primary level, 5 per cent at lower secondary, and 16 per cent at upper secondary by 2030—a goal that would reduce the number of out-of-school children to 107 million, a decrease of 165 million . However, the report warns that countries are projected to fall 75 million short of their 2025 national targets, with a shortfall of four percentage points at primary and lower secondary levels and six percentage points at upper secondary .
Conflict zones and undercounted crises
The 2025 Scorecard provides, for the first time, an estimate of the out-of-school population in 10 conflict-affected countries where data is difficult to access: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, Palestine, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan . These nations account for at least 13 million additional out-of-school children beyond the global estimate, suggesting the true figure is significantly higher .
In Africa, the crisis is particularly acute. The SDG 4 Scorecard for Africa, a companion report released alongside the global assessment, reveals that 118 million children, adolescents and youth are currently out of school across the continent . The report incorporates new data from conflict-affected nations: Somalia’s out-of-school population is now estimated at 3.7 million, while Sudan’s has risen sharply from 6.6 million to 11.4 million .
Through their national SDG 4 benchmarks, African countries have collectively committed to reducing out-of-school numbers by 58 million by 2030 . However, the report’s methodology acknowledges significant limitations in crisis settings. In areas affected by conflict, education data is frequently outdated or unavailable, and the statistical model’s assumption of continuous educational progress becomes a major constraint .
Tracking away from 2025 targets
Beyond out-of-school rates, the Scorecard reveals that countries are falling behind on multiple benchmark indicators. The assessment, which covers progress since 2015 and evaluates the probability of achieving 2025 targets, shows the largest gaps in teacher training, early childhood education, and learning outcomes .
Countries are furthest behind their 2025 national targets in training teachers, off track by seven percentage points in pre-primary education. Expanding early childhood education participation lags by nine percentage points, a shortfall the report attributes to the likely impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Achieving minimum proficiency in reading by the end of primary education is off track by 11 percentage points, though this indicator is hampered by limited data availability .
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Public education spending presents a particularly concerning trend. The report finds that countries are “moving backwards” in terms of education financing, with levels further away from the twin international benchmarks of 4 per cent of gross domestic product and 15 per cent of total public expenditure in 2023 than they were in 2015 . UNESCO advocates for countries to allocate at least 4 to 6 per cent of GDP and at least 15 to 20 per cent of total public expenditure to education .
Gender parity progress and persistent gaps
The 2025 Scorecard coincides with the 30th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, which in 1995 set out an ambitious vision for full and equal participation of women in all aspects of life, including education. According to UNESCO’s GEM team, the world has moved closer to gender parity in education over three decades, but 133 million girls remain out of school globally .
Since 1995, 91 million more girls are in primary education than three decades ago, and 136 million more are in secondary education. Women’s enrolment in tertiary education has tripled, from 41 million to 139 million . However, progress differs sharply by region. Central and Southern Asia has achieved parity in secondary enrolment, while sub-Saharan Africa continues to trail behind. Oceania, once at parity, now sees girls at a disadvantage. In Latin America and the Caribbean, boys are less likely than girls to advance through secondary education .
“When poverty and location intersect with gender, the disadvantages become even more severe: in Guinea and Mali, practically no poor young women are in school,” the report states .
The Beijing Declaration called for more than enrolment—it demanded transformation. Yet the Scorecard finds progress has been patchy. Sexuality education is compulsory in only about two-thirds of countries at primary level and around three-quarters at secondary level, leaving many young people without vital knowledge and skills. Textbooks in many contexts continue to reinforce stereotypes rather than challenge them. And while women make up the majority of teachers, they remain under-represented in leadership, with just 30 per cent of higher education leaders worldwide being women .
Regional disparities: India and South Asia
The Scorecard provides detailed country-level analysis, with India emerging as a case study in mixed progress. According to the 2025 assessment, India has nearly universalised primary and lower secondary education and shows consistent gains in gender parity, school completion rates, and digital infrastructure .
The report classifies India among countries showing “fast progress” in narrowing the gender gap in upper secondary completion, with a 2025 benchmark gap of 2.3 percentage points compared to the regional average of 3.4. “Countries which started with a disadvantage at the expense of girls are moving towards parity,” the report notes, adding that India is aligned with this trend .
However, India remains significantly off-track in foundational learning. The report indicates countries, including India, are “off track by 11 percentage points” from the benchmark for achieving minimum reading proficiency by the end of primary education. India’s benchmark for this indicator is 56 per cent, but actual achievement is substantially lower. In contrast, high-income countries report reading proficiency levels nearing 99 per cent, while South Asia’s regional average stands at 49 per cent .
Upper secondary and tertiary participation remain serious concerns. India’s 2025 benchmark for upper secondary completion is 67 per cent, but the projected out-of-school rate for youth aged 15-17 is still 21 per cent. South Asia performs slightly better with a projected 13 per cent out-of-school rate, while high-income countries have nearly achieved universal participation with rates under 2 per cent .
Public expenditure on education was 3.1 per cent of GDP in 2023, below the SDG benchmark of 4 per cent and far from India’s National Education Policy aspirational target of 6 per cent. This places India below the South Asian average of 3.4 per cent and significantly behind high-income countries, which spend between 4.8 and 5.5 per cent of GDP . India has also not met its target for trained pre-primary teachers, with a 2025 benchmark set at 88 per cent but progress slow and data limited .
Methodology and data challenges
The 2025 SDG 4 Scorecard’s estimates are derived from a statistical model that integrates administrative records, household surveys, and census data to provide consistent global and regional education trends . The model reconciles inconsistencies between data sources, fills gaps where yearly data is missing, and makes short-term projections to estimate current numbers .
However, the report acknowledges significant limitations. National statistics may vary because they often rely on a single data source from a specific year, whereas the model fills in data gaps for missing years . The type of data source used plays a crucial role in shaping estimates. In countries relying only on administrative records, population growth is entirely reflected in out-of-school numbers—especially where recent data is unavailable. In contrast, countries using survey-based data tend to show a more balanced distribution of increased population between students who are enrolled and those who are not .
The report urges development of more resilient education data systems and calls for urgent policy interventions to tackle the worsening education crisis, especially in conflict zones and under-resourced regions .
Latest developments and 2030 outlook
As of the report’s June 2025 release, 80 per cent of countries have contributed national targets for at least one indicator, demonstrating broad commitment to the benchmarking process . However, the assessment warns that many countries are likely to miss their 2025 national education targets for 75 million students, signalling that global efforts toward achieving universal education are seriously off course .
The report’s key findings have been amplified through regional releases, including dedicated Scorecards for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia and the Pacific . The Africa report was launched at a June 16, 2025 event hosted by the African Union, GEM Report, and UIS under the theme “Tracking Impact, Inspiring Action” .
UNESCO continues to advocate for the right to education for all, calling on countries to meet financing benchmarks and ensure global coordination to keep education at the top of government priorities. The organisation also intervenes in situations of conflict, emergencies, and protracted crises to ensure access to education .
The 2025 SDG 4 Scorecard presents a sobering assessment of global education progress five years before the 2030 deadline. With 272 million children and youth out of school—a figure that rises to at least 285 million when conflict-affected nations are fully accounted for—the world is moving backward on its commitment to universal education.
While countries have demonstrated commitment through national benchmarking, the gaps in teacher training, early childhood education, learning outcomes, and financing reveal systemic failures that COVID-19 exacerbated and that conflict continues to deepen. The 133 million girls still out of school represent not only unfinished business from the 1995 Beijing Declaration but a continuing loss of human potential that perpetuates poverty and inequality across generations.
As Antoninis and the GEM team emphasise, turning commitments into results requires sustained investment in data systems, institutional capacity, and political leadership. For the millions of children in conflict zones, for the girls denied education by policy or poverty, and for the youth aged out of systems that failed them, the 2030 deadline looms ever closer—and the gap between aspiration and reality continues to widen.
SOURCES / INPUTS
UNESCO: 2025 SDG 4 Scorecard progress report on national benchmarks
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UNESCO Institute for Statistics: SDG4 scorecard progress report on national benchmarks
UNESCO Institute for Statistics: SDG 4 Scorecard publications
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