Oil Surges Past $115 as Middle East War Expands, Stocks Tumble Worldwide
LONDON — March 30, 2026 — Global oil prices surged sharply on Monday, March 30, as the Middle East conflict entered its fifth week with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group formally joining the war, while equity markets across Asia and the United States tumbled amid growing fears of prolonged supply disruptions and persistent inflation.
Brent crude futures rose as much as 4 percent overnight to nearly $117 per barrel, approaching the interim high of $119.50 reached three weeks ago, according to data from the German Press Agency (dpa) . By early morning trading, Brent stood at $115.55, up 2.7 percent from the end of last week . West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed above $102 per barrel, with both benchmarks posting gains of more than 50 percent since the conflict began on February 28 .
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Oil Prices Surge on Houthi Entry, Trump Comments
The latest spike in crude prices followed weekend missile launches by Houthi forces targeting Israel, marking the group’s formal entry into the conflict . The Houthis have warned of continued attacks until strikes on Iran and its allied militias cease, adding a new layer of risk to already strained global energy markets .
U.S. President Donald Trump added to market jitters with remarks suggesting Washington could take control of Iran’s oil resources, drawing a comparison to past U.S. actions in Venezuela . In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump signaled that one possible approach toward Iran could involve increasing U.S. influence over the country’s energy sector .
Iranian officials, meanwhile, rejected U.S. diplomatic overtures. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told Iranian media that proposals transmitted through intermediaries were “very extreme and unreasonable” , dampening hopes for a near-term ceasefire.
Brent crude has risen almost 60 percent since the start of the Iran war, while WTI is up more than 50 percent over the same period . The monthly surge now rivals the jump that followed Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 . More worrying for energy consumers and central bankers, three-month Brent futures are now also trading above $100 per barrel, indicating growing pessimism about a near-term end to the war and the risk of persistent inflationary pressure .
Global Stock Markets Tumble
Equity markets across Asia and the United States plunged as investors grappled with the prospect of sustained high energy costs and a potential global recessionary shock.
U.S. stocks closed Friday, March 27, at their lowest levels in over seven months, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirming it was in correction territory . The Dow fell 793.47 points, or 1.73 percent, to 45,166.64, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.67 percent to 6,368.85, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.15 percent to 20,948.36 .
Asian markets followed suit on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged nearly 4 percent, bringing its March losses to approximately 13 percent . South Korea’s Kospi fell almost 3 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined more than 1 percent . Stock markets across the region slumped as investors dug in for a protracted Gulf conflict that already has oil prices heading for a record monthly rise .
European shares showed early signs of resilience, rising slightly in early trading as investors weighed Trump’s continued claims of progress in peace talks with Tehran .
Indian Markets Slide on Weak Open
Indian equity benchmarks opened sharply lower on Monday, extending losses from Friday’s session. The BSE Sensex fell 1,690.23 points, or 2.25 percent, to 73,583.22 on Friday, while the Nifty 50 dropped 2.09 percent to 22,819.60 . By afternoon trading on Monday, the Sensex had plunged an additional 1,043 points to 72,539.76, while the Nifty tumbled below the 22,550 mark .
The market breadth was weak, with declines outpacing advances by a wide margin. The Nifty Realty index fell more than 2 percent, extending losses for a second consecutive session . The NSE’s India VIX, a gauge of near-term market volatility, jumped 5.04 percent to 28.16 .
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Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling spree, offloading equities worth ₹4,367 crore on Friday, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought ₹3,566 crore . The rupee remained under pressure, reflecting the broader risk-off sentiment across emerging markets.
Currency and Bond Markets
The U.S. dollar held broadly steady on Monday, poised for its strongest monthly gain since July as investors fretted about the ramifications of a long war in the Middle East . The greenback’s strength pushed the yen past the critical 160-per-dollar level, reviving concerns over potential Japanese intervention . Japanese currency official Atsushi Mimura said Monday that “decisive measures” may be called for to stem the yen’s fall .
Among Asian currencies, the Indonesian rupiah led losses, followed by the Philippine peso, Thai baht and Taiwan dollar . The U.S. dollar index was on track for its strongest monthly advance since last July .
U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 10-year yield easing 2 basis points to 4.4 percent, while the 2-year yield dipped 3 basis points to 3.87 percent . Ten-year yields have climbed roughly 47 basis points for the month so far, reflecting market expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates higher for longer to combat inflation .
Gold and Commodities
Gold declined on Monday, erasing its first weekly gain since the war began, as the Houthi entry into the conflict and additional U.S. military deployments to the region dampened the metal’s safe-haven appeal . European TTF natural gas traded near €54 per megawatt-hour .
Key Events to Watch This Week
Markets are bracing for a busy week of economic data and central bank commentary. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams are both scheduled to speak Monday, with traders looking for signals on how the energy shock is shaping Fed policy .
G7 finance ministers, foreign ministers and central bankers will hold a virtual meeting to assess what measures they can take to alleviate the impacts of the energy shock . Germany will release preliminary March inflation data, offering an early look at how the oil price surge is filtering through to consumer prices in Europe’s largest economy .
Later this week, South Korea will release March trade data and inflation figures, with analysts expecting higher oil and shipping costs linked to the Middle East conflict to keep price pressures elevated .
Outlook
Analysts said crude oil remains the most critical macro variable at this stage. “Market participants are increasingly pricing in a prolonged supply disruption scenario, with some global estimates indicating a potential spike towards $200 per barrel if tensions persist,” analysts cited by IANS told reporters .
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research noted that financial markets are beginning to factor in the possibility of oil prices and interest rates staying elevated for a longer period, warning that any ongoing strain on key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could weigh on market sentiment and economic growth .
With more U.S. troops deploying to the region and reports of ground operations swirling, the crisis seems to be at an important juncture. Whether the coming days bring escalation or de-escalation remains to be seen — but for now, investors are bracing for more volatility ahead.
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